Craps Odds
Craps is a unique casino game in that it offers over 100 different bets. If you've ever studied a craps table layout, then you probably noticed many different areas in which to place your chips. You can make bets on what number you predict will be thrown next, how that number will be created as a combination of the dice, what number or numbers won't come up next, and so on. With such a variety of bets available and the fact that a pair of dice may yield 36 different numerical combinations, it is easy to see how the odds can vary quite a bit. Some bets offer favorable odds - even better than straight blackjack - while others are not so good. So. why is it that Nevada casinos take in about $16 for every $100 wagered when the house edge is only around 1%? The truth is that most Craps players play on instinct. Sure, in a game where each roll of the dice is independent from all previous rolls, it truly is sort of a guessing game. But, guessing will only get you so far. You need to know what the payouts are for different bets, and odds of those bets to occur. Hopefully, the next time you play you will do so knowing which bets carry the best odds, and which ones to avoid altogether.
Chances Of Dice Totals
| Dice Total | Combinations | Ways Possible | Odds |
|
2
|
1:1 |
1
|
1 in 36 |
|
3
|
1:2, 2:1 |
2
|
2 in 36 |
|
4
|
1:3, 2:2, 3:1 |
3
|
3 in 36 |
|
5
|
1:4, 2:3, 3:2, 4:1 |
4
|
4 in 36 |
|
6
|
1:5, 2:4, 3:3, 4:2, 5:1 |
5
|
5 in 36 |
|
7
|
1:6, 2:5, 3:4, 4:3, 5:2, 6:1 |
6
|
6 in 36 |
|
8
|
2:6, 3:5, 4:4, 5:3, 6:2 |
5
|
5 in 36 |
|
9
|
3:6, 4:5, 5:4, 6:3 |
4
|
4 in 36 |
|
10
|
4:6, 5:5, 6:4 |
3
|
3 in 36 |
|
11
|
5:6, 6:5 |
2
|
2 in 36 |
|
12
|
6:6 |
1
|
1 in 36 |
Simple observation of the chart above shows that seven (7) is the most likely outcome with a 6 in 36 probability, while snake eyes (double ones) and twelve (12) are the least likely with 1 in 36 probabilities. The house advantage is built into each number bet by the payout odds.
Payout Odds
The chart to the right shows some of the common bets in Craps, what each bet's payout is for winning, and the edge the house has on each particular wager. The best bets on the table are the pass line point bets (with odds). These bets can be placed in addition to your come or pass line bets, and offer true odds for payouts, meaning the house has no advantage over the player. Single odds means you may make an additional wager equal to your original bet. Double odds means up to two times your bet and so on up to 100 times odds, offered, possibly, at only the famous Binion's Horseshoe casino in Las Vegas.
Other bets that yield reasonably decent odds for players include the Pass Line and Don't Pass Line bets, where the house has only a 1.4% edge and less if you're playing with single or double odds. The Place Bet of 6 or 8 is also worthy of your chips because it only carries a 1.52% advantage for the casino. The payout on this bet is only 7 to 6, so you won't win a lot very quickly. I recommend sticking with the Pass Line and Come bets with odds.
Bets to Avoid
The chart also shows that a good many craps bets hold a steep edge for the house, and should not be played unless your goal is to lose money. The most likely outcome of the dice is 7, so you might logically deduce that this is a safe bet to make, right? Well, it's actually the worst on the table, carrying a 16.67% house edge. Why is this? Consider the number of ways to make a seven: 1+6, 2+5, 3+4, 4+3, 5+2, and 6+1. That makes six ways that the dice can combine to total seven, giving you a 6 out of 36 (or reduced to 1 in 6) probability of a 7 on the next roll. However, the casino knows this, so the payout odds have been shifted to 5 to 1, thus creating the 16.67% advantage. Other bets to avoid include any craps (2, 3, or 12), any 2 or 12, and any 3 or 11 which, at 30 to 1 payout odds might seem like it would be okay, but it isn't. Even those high payout odds fail to compensate for the actual likelihood of its occurrence. Another bet that some casinos have actually removed from tables, due to its poor odds for the player, is the Big 6 and Big 8 bets. On the table, the area for this bet is large, and can be tempting for the inexperienced player to just toss a couple chips into during the heat of the moment. Beware of the Big 6 and Big 8! They are identical to Place Bets of 6 and 8, meaning you're betting that a 6 or 8 will come up before a 7. But unlike Place Bets, they only pay out at 1 to 1. So, instead of the house having a mere 1.52% edge, it jumps to over 9%. Most Atlantic City casinos have done Craps players a small favor in removing the Big 6/8 betting areas from table layouts. Next time you play, be sure to stick with the bets that have the best odds.
Depending on the stage of the game you are in and which type of betting you are following, your odds in craps can change frequently. The following is really good chart outlining in detail your odds for any kind of bet that can be made while playing craps.
|
Bet |
Probability, % |
Player Edge |
||
|
win |
loss |
|||
|
Pass Line |
49.2929 |
50.7071 |
-7/495 |
-1.4141% |
|
Don't Pass Line |
47.9293 |
49.2929 |
-3/220 |
-1.3636% |
|
Come |
49.2929 |
50.7071 |
-7/495 |
-1.4141% |
|
Don't Come |
47.9293 |
49.2929 |
-3/220 |
-1.3636% |
|
Pass\Come Odds Bets |
|
|
|
|
|
4 or 10 |
33.3333 |
66.6667 |
0 |
0% |
|
5 or 9 |
40.0000 |
60.0000 |
0 |
0% |
|
6 or 8 |
45.4545 |
54.5455 |
0 |
0% |
|
Don't Pass\Come Odds Bets |
|
|
|
|
|
4 or 10 |
66.6667 |
33.3333 |
0 |
0% |
|
5 or 9 |
60.0000 |
40.0000 |
0 |
0% |
|
6 or 8 |
54.5455 |
45.4545 |
0 |
0% |
|
Win Bets |
|
|
|
|
|
4 or 10 |
33.3333 |
66.6667 |
-1/15 |
-6.6667% |
|
5 or 9 |
40.0000 |
60.0000 |
-1/25 |
-4.0000% |
|
6 or 8 |
45.4545 |
54.5455 |
-1/66 |
-1.5152% |
|
Lose Bets |
|
|
|
|
|
4 or 10 |
66.6667 |
33.3333 |
-1/15 |
-6.6667% |
|
5 or 9 |
60.0000 |
40.0000 |
-2/35 |
-5.7143% |
|
6 or 8 |
54.5455 |
45.4545 |
-1/55 |
-1.8182% |
|
Hardways |
|
|
|
|
|
2:2 or 5:5 |
11.1111 |
88.8889 |
-1/9 |
-11.1111% |
|
3:3 or 4:4 |
9.0909 |
90.9091 |
-1/11 |
-9.0909% |
|
Big 6 or Big 8 |
45.4545 |
54.5455 |
-1/11 |
-9.0909% |
|
Field Bet |
44.4444 |
55.5556 |
-1/18 |
-5.5556% |
|
Any Seven |
16.6667 |
83.3333 |
-1/6 |
-16.6667% |
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